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| Deficit
Monsoons - Economy & Food Security – Policy Imperatives |
 Round Table Discussion
- "Deficit Monsoons – Economy &
Food Security – Policy Imperatives" by Prof. Arun
Kumar - Professor Social Sciences, Centre for Economic Studies &
Planning, JNU and Mr. Brij K. Taimni – Member National Consumer
Dispute Redressal Commission & Former Food Secretary Government
of India. in collaboration with ASSOCHAM in ASSOCHAM House, 47 Prithviraj
Road, New Delhi.
14th September 2009
- It is important to realise is what a drought is and what
makes us characterised as a drought. There are 35 meteorological
subdivisions in India and of these, 9 will have deficient rainfall
almost every year. The larger the number of subdivisions that have
deficient rainfall, the larger is the drought.
- In the first week of August, Central India had 93% deficiency
in rainfall, a massive and unusual. The north-western part, the
country's green bowl had 76% below the long-term average, a massive
and unusual deficiency.
- The bulk of the rain takes place in India during the monsoon
months, unlike some other countries where rainfall is more evenly
distributed. Rains received during monsoon have to provide water
for the remaining part of the year, which is why it is very critical.
- Crops are very specific to temperature, moisture and other
such soil conditions. One cannot plant a summer rice plant in the
month of November or December, or plant wheat in June; it will not
work. Having sufficient rainfall at a late stage does not change
the scenario to any significant extent.
- Despite certain areas being irrigated, they will still face
problems. Monsoons, apart from the precipitation, also provide a
cloud cover that is very important because it prevents the evaporation
of water.
- We will likely have problems in drinking water availability
due to water shortages. The water table may go down further necessitating
more pumping; many wells may just dry up in the drought-affected
areas. Animal husbandry may also be affected because of reduction
in the availability of fodder and water for the animals.
- Historically, droughts have been major shocks to our country's
economy. Roughly, droughts have had a four-year cycle, looking at
a long period of 100 years. In each of these droughts, not only
is there a fall in agricultural production, but also in the non-agricultural
production sector. The impact on economy due to shortfall in agricultural
output in comparatively less because the share of agriculture in
GDP has come down dramatically. In 1947, agriculture used to constitute
about 55% of GDP; it now constitutes only 17% of GDP. The dependence
on agriculture of the economy has come down dramatically.
- Production of the non-agricultural sector falls because food
is the major item in the consumption basket of a vast majority of
the people. A rise in food prices leaves lesser money to be spent
on other items.
- Modern agriculture is very water-intensive. We have shifted
our cropping pattern from certain less water-intensive crops to
more water-intensive crops. When the food crop begins to fail, there
are expectations in the trade of likely shortages ahead and the
traders begin to hold back supplies. In agriculture, rich farmers
and traders begin to hold back supplies in anticipation of obtaining
better prices later on.
- There are many checks and balances against price fluctuation
in the economy, one of them being dual pricing or the public distribution
system, introduced in 1967.
- In the recent past, we have been witnessing an economic crisis,
not just because of the drought but a global economic crisis that
is creeping in. Currently, the output in the economy has declined
more because of the global economic crisis and not because of the
food crisis. In the coming 8-9 months we may witness the combined
effect of the global slowdown. Though India will come out of it,
we will feel its effect on growth.
- Those who depend on agriculture are in a marginal economy
and their contribution is marginal. This will lead to a further
split between the organised sector and the unorganised sector, which
is widening very rapidly.
- The government is taking many steps. When a drought is declared,
there is a package of relief measures. Short duration crops are
made available, as are subsidies on irrigation and other things.
But because the government spends a lot, there is that much more
corruption and the money does not reach the ground. Government policies
have to be made more effective.
- The NREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) provides
money for employment generation. It is not uniformly working well
everywhere, but in some areas it is working satisfactorily and in
those areas it will be able to prevent the adverse effects of this
phenomenon.
- The current deficit monsoon may lead to a revenue deficit
of at least 4%; fiscal deficit of all levels of government stands
at roughly 12%, which might go up by another percent leading therefore,
to a very fiscal deficit.
- Food security has not been on the agenda of any country till
the middle of twentieth century. Hungry and malnourished people
were dealt in a routine manner, generally benefiting from the generosity
and philanthropic attitude or well-to-do or the system in place
at a given point of time.
- For the first time in 1974, the World Bank held its First
World Food Conference and defined food security and said that every
man, woman and child has a right to be free from hunger and malnutrition.
The full credit for bringing this subject of food security per se
on the global agenda goes to the Food and Agricultural Organisation,
which held the only World Food summit in 1996 in Rome.
- We have never concerned ourselves directly or tried to look
at food security in a composite manner so as to deal with both food
and nutritional security. At the time of the first World Food Summit
in 1996, out of all the malnourished people in the world (at that
time 836 million) India's share alone was 25%. As per the latest
FAO report in the study of food security in the world 2006, we continue
to have 212 million undernourished people out of the population
of more than one billion.
- A nation which aspires to be the leading country or a developed
country in the world cannot afford to have 25% of its population
in undernourished conditions.
- The whole question of nutritional security was attempted
to be addressed to the National Plan of Action in Nutrition (NPN)
in two formats. Firstly to improve the protein energy malnutrition,
iron deficiency, iron deficiency disorder, vitamin A deficiency
through various health schemes and secondly, by supplemental effort
at enhancing food intake for children, lactating mothers and later
on adolescent girls. The trickle-down effect to resolve the question
of food security hasn't worked.
- Strong political will is required, reflected both from the
Central level reaching up to the (now) powerful gram Panchayats.
To deal with the whole question of alleviation and eradication of
poverty and malnutrition through responsible and more importantly,
accountable administrative governance infrastructure.
- Food security will pose a serious challenge, but two things
are in our favour. There is a buffer stock of almost about 15 million
tonnes of food grains against our total off-take of about 35 million
tonnes a year. Secondly, the Government of India has released additional
quantity of food grains for calamity relief in the current year.
- We need to strengthen and revised various relief systems
eg. Annapoorna scheme, Big Green Scheme, mid-day meal scheme, wheat-based
nutrition programme and supply of food grains.
- Drinking water could become a major challenge. After independence,
two specific target schemes were introduced to meet droughts - the
Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP), which has been discontinued,
and the National Watershed Development Programme.
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